Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 79.3%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète14 avr. 26, 18:13 UTC14 avr. 00, 18:08 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.
- This market will resolve YES if there is strong evidence that a majority of people who were cryopreserved before 2026 spent at least 24 hours after legal death but before having their remains vitrified at cryogenic temperatures.
- It will resolve NO if there is strong evidence that a majority were cryopreserved with less than a day's wait time.
- I won't resolve until there is clear, unambiguous evidence about how it should resolve.
- I also won't bet.
Marchés ouverts
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 28,1 k €
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volume total
- 15,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,5 k €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.5pt93.1%
- Yes+0.5pt6.9%
- Volume total
- 944,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 8,2 k €
KALSHIWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- Kenya14%
- India6%
- Ethiopia-2.0pt5%
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,4 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 600061%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 882,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 k €
KALSHIWill 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?
- On Nov 13, 202696%
- On Mar 13, 202789%
- On Nov 19, 202786%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 k €
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- Pandemic in 2026?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 79% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? doit être résolu le 14 avril 3000.
- Comment Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.