Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.2%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète4 avr. 26, 09:42 UTC31 déc. 27, 10:38 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
LimitlessStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiTraffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/7 - 9/13)
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The payments should be a part of what I deem to be a normalized process in the post-war period for this to resolve YES.
- To determine if the conflict ends, I will use the resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by or of a similar market with expiration dates beyond December 31st.
- If there is no such substantially similar market, and the existing Polymarket answers resolve to NO, I will use a consensus of credible reporting to determine roughly when the conflict ends.
- [link preview]
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 9,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,5 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 56,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 170,4 k €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will Fees for Passing the Strait of Hormuz Persist? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.