Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.2%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète4 avr. 26, 09:42 UTC31 déc. 27, 10:38 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
LimitlessStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The payments should be a part of what I deem to be a normalized process in the post-war period for this to resolve YES.
- To determine if the conflict ends, I will use the resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by or of a similar market with expiration dates beyond December 31st.
- If there is no such substantially similar market, and the existing Polymarket answers resolve to NO, I will use a consensus of credible reporting to determine roughly when the conflict ends.
- [link preview]