Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
GéopolitiqueMonthlyTechChine2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.4%
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète26 déc. 25, 17:09 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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PolymarketRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, at any time between market launch and December 31, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM) or another Chinese central government authority with export-control jurisdiction formally announces or enforces a policy that materially restricts gallium exports to the United States beyond the pre-2024 baseline.
- A material restriction includes any of the following:
- Reinstatement of the December 2024-level export ban on gallium to the United States;
- A new or revised regulation, directive, or enforcement action that results in categorical or widespread denial of export licenses for US-bound gallium;
- The imposition of export conditions that, in practice, function as a ban on gallium exports to the United States.