Will China's suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controls still be in effect on November 30, 2026?
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Mis à jour il y a 32 minutes
23 sept. 26, 13:13 UTC30 nov. 26, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China's suspension of its October 2025 export controls still be in effect on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China's October 2025 export controls on lithium battery materials be in effect on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China have active, unresumed export controls on graphite anode material (HS 3801.10/3801.90) on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and Brazil close a rare earths deal in 2026?
FutuurTariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if, on November 30, 2026, China's suspension of its October 9, 2025 export-control measures is still in effect.
- That suspension currently runs under MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025, and an extension or successor suspension also counts.
- It resolves NO if any of the suspended measures has taken effect by that date: MOFCOM/GAC Announcements No. 55-58 and MOFCOM Announcements No. 61-62 of 2025.
- Those measures cover holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium, rare-earth equipment and technology, the 0.1% extraterritorial rule, lithium-battery and graphite anode items, and superhard materials.
- China's separate April 2025 licensing regime for seven medium and heavy rare earths staying in force does not affect this market.
- Background: Announcement No. 70 (November 7, 2025) suspended these measures until November 10, 2026, following the Busan Trump-Xi meeting.
