Will China have lifted its April 2025 heavy rare earth export licensing (globally or for the US) as of Dec 31, 2026?
One-OffRégulationChine2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète23 sept. 26, 13:13 UTC31 déc. 26, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market resolves YES if, on December 31, 2026, an official Chinese measure is in effect that suspends or removes the export licensing requirement of MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 for all seven covered elements: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium.
- The measure may apply to all destinations or to exports to the United States.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- The following do not count: granting individual or general licences under the regime (general licences began in December 2025), faster approvals, or a suspension covering only some of the seven elements.
- Background: Announcement No. 18 (April 4, 2025) placed these elements under dual-use export licensing.
- The November 2025 Busan truce suspended China's later October 2025 controls but left this regime in place.
