Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79%
Prévisionnistes
53
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 minutes
3 mars 24, 15:58 UTC31 déc. 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich leaders will leave office in 2026?
KalshiRègles
This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.
- If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining agency(ies) will be considered sufficient.