La Chine lancera-t-elle une invasion à grande échelle de Taïwan avant 2030 ?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffChina3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72%
Prévisionnistes
1,039
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
24 mai 22, 01:01 UTC1 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketRègles
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/
- Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that this market's resolution will be determined by the linked Metaculus market.
- Resolution Source: This market will resolve as the Metaculus question Chinese Invasion of Taiwan resolves.
- Guidance on Specific Scenarios: For inquiries regarding specific scenarios, such as whether a 'massive, successful blockade' would count, the resolution criteria and any clarifications on the linked Metaculus market should be consulted, as this market will follow its determination.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour La Chine lancera-t-elle une invasion à grande échelle de Taïwan avant 2030 ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 72% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand La Chine lancera-t-elle une invasion à grande échelle de Taïwan avant 2030 ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- La Chine lancera-t-elle une invasion à grande échelle de Taïwan avant 2030 ? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment La Chine lancera-t-elle une invasion à grande échelle de Taïwan avant 2030 ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/