Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 12:06 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 64.7%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète10 mars 25, 13:25 UTC31 déc. 30, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026
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PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to YES, If any nuclear weapon is used before or in 2030.
- This includes weapons not used in war.
- Such as in a test.
- This includes smaller yield weapons, that are not necessarily as bombastic as an intercontinental ballistic missiles, (what's important is the payload)
- This DOES NOT include nuclear powered weapons, such as air-craft carriers or submarines (as they don't even fall under my definition of a weapon, and are considered weapon platforms)