Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.9%
Prévisionnistes
58
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
10 mars 26, 00:23 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a nuke be used offensively before the end of the year ?
Manifold MarketsNuclear weapon used offensively before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively against a target during 2026. "Offensive use" means deliberate detonation by a state or non-state actor as a weapon in an armed conflict or attack, excluding accidental detonation, testing, or defensive/retaliatory use in response to a prior nuclear attack.
- Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) confirming a nuclear detonation with offensive intent.
- The market creator will resolve based on available evidence at year-end.
- Military operations in 2025 occurred in three theaters under the shadow of nuclear weapons, with the Russia-Ukraine war featuring innovative military tactics and Russian nuclear threats.
- Russia revised its nuclear doctrine to signal a lower threshold for nuclear weapons use.