Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 17:55 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète5 nov. 25, 14:41 UTC31 déc. 99, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026
Manifold MarketsIf a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in New Zealand within 1 year?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuke be used offensively before the end of the year ?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves yes if anyone intentionally uses a nuclear bomb/missile on someone else.
- Reactor meltdowns and other mistakes do not count, even if they are intentionally orchestrated.
- A weapon that is launched with the intent to explode counts regardless of whether it lands or is defended.
- Resolves based on credible news outlets or government statements.