Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleRussia 40%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète18 oct. 25, 03:33 UTC19 déc. 35, 03:55 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2026? (Tests included)
Manifold MarketsWill the United States government detonate a nuclear weapon anywhere in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRègles
I’m just a curious guy with zero expertise related to this subject.
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA
- “Nuclear Weapon”:
- Both “normal” and tactical nukes count.
- Dirty bombs do not count.
- Bombing a nuclear plant or similar, like Zaporizhzhia, does not count.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Russia à 40% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively? doit être résolu le 19 décembre 2035.
- Comment Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I’m just a curious guy with zero expertise related to this subject.