Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.7%
Prévisionnistes
92
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard12 déc. 22, 15:27 UTC1 janv. 40, 05:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated in a war during the 2nd Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if one country attacks another country with a nuclear weapon for reasons that are clearly a part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Resolves NO if the conflict is resolved without any such detonations.
- A "resolved" confict means that we reach a state of affairs where it doesn't seem likely that one country will use force against another any time in the near future.
- They don't have to actually be friendly with each other, but there do need to be no threatening troop movements or nonviolent attacks such as government-sponsored hacks or aggressive economic sanctions.
- A nuclear test meant to intimidate an opposing country doesn't count.