Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 93.5%
Prévisionnistes
91
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète12 déc. 22, 15:27 UTC1 janv. 40, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if one country attacks another country with a nuclear weapon for reasons that are clearly a part of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Resolves NO if the conflict is resolved without any such detonations.
- A "resolved" confict means that we reach a state of affairs where it doesn't seem likely that one country will use force against another any time in the near future.
- They don't have to actually be friendly with each other, but there do need to be no threatening troop movements or nonviolent attacks such as government-sponsored hacks or aggressive economic sanctions.
- A nuclear test meant to intimidate an opposing country doesn't count.