Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 87.7%
Prévisionnistes
38
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète10 juin 24, 16:08 UTC2 janv. 30, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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PolymarketRègles
The detonation of nuclear weapons in combat has not occurred since World War II, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki being the last instances.
- However, the threat of nuclear conflict remains due to geopolitical tensions, particularly involving countries like North Korea, Russia, and the United States.
- International treaties and diplomatic efforts aim to prevent nuclear proliferation and use.
- Historical Context: No combat use since 1945; numerous close calls and tensions during the Cold War and beyond.
- Factors to Consider: Geopolitical developments, arms control treaties, and regional conflicts.
- Data Sources: Reports from international bodies like the IAEA, UN, and strategic think tanks.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The detonation of nuclear weapons in combat has not occurred since World War II, with Hiroshima and Nagasaki being the last instances.