Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleWith rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing. 88.3%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète25 déc. 25, 13:28 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which of these predictions from @tanya_sabrinaaa will come true in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRègles
Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2026 - Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2026
- A letter from the editor of The World Ahead
- I selected the most resolvable predictions from the article.
- Which ones will be obviously resolvable from standard media outlets in 2026?
- With luck, the fragile peace in Gaza will hold.
- Conflicts will grind on in Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true? ?
- Manifold Markets cote With rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing. à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Which "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2026 - Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2026