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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète12 juin 25, 00:25 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich of Simon Willison's predictions from 2026 will come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Three prongs:
- 1) China agreeing to AI pause or
- 2) open AI having $3T revenue or
- 3) open AI having 80% of global compute by eoy 2028
- Inspired by my offer to @ScottAlexander on Twitter
- https://x.com/abcampbell/status/1909178653050880152