Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleApr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work 54.8%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète22 mai 26, 23:08 UTC1 janv. 29, 00:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true?
Manifold MarketsWhich "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill Perplexity's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRègles
The Guardian: AI will help make a Nobel prize-winning discovery within a year, says Anthropic co-founder
- Sam Bowman on X (Imgur backup)
- TL;DR Jack Clark of AI lab Anthropic gave a lecture at Oxford where, among other things, he showed a slide shown in [2] which featured some of his own predictions, which was a subject of The Guardian's article in [1].
- The ones above the line are used as basis for questions in this market.
- The questions are lightly paraphrased to save space; refer to the original slide for full phrasing and see the resolution criteria below for more info.
- Notes on resolution criteria:
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 182,3 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 résultats de plus
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
- Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work à 55% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2029.
- Comment Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The Guardian: AI will help make a Nobel prize-winning discovery within a year, says Anthropic co-founder