Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
RégulationIAOne-OffPolitiquePolitique américaineEurope2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.8%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète18 mars 26, 15:46 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any country enacts a law that explicitly bans the development, deployment, or use of "advanced AI systems" before January 1, 2027.
- The ban must be a binding legal prohibition, not merely regulatory restrictions, licensing requirements, or risk-based compliance frameworks.
- For resolution purposes:
- "Advanced AI systems" refers to frontier or general-purpose AI models with significant capabilities (e.g., systems comparable to GPT-4 or similar large language models)
- The ban must apply to the entire country or a substantial portion of its territory
