Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
RégulationIAOne-OffChinaEurope3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.6%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète19 mars 26, 16:50 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
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PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any country officially bans or heavily restricts the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution is based on official government announcements or legislation that explicitly prohibits or substantially restricts deployment of advanced AI systems (such as large language models, foundation models, or general-purpose AI systems).
- A "ban" means prohibition of use or deployment.
- A "heavy restriction" means requirements that effectively prevent widespread commercial use, such as: mandatory licensing with severe limitations, operational bans in key sectors, or restrictions requiring systems to be substantially modified or disabled.
- Restrictions on specific AI applications (e.g., biometric surveillance, emotion recognition) do not count unless they effectively prevent the use of advanced AI systems broadly.
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 96,6 k €
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- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria