Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
RégulationIAOne-OffChineEurope2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.6%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète19 mars 26, 16:50 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any country officially bans or heavily restricts the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution is based on official government announcements or legislation that explicitly prohibits or substantially restricts deployment of advanced AI systems (such as large language models, foundation models, or general-purpose AI systems).
- A "ban" means prohibition of use or deployment.
- A "heavy restriction" means requirements that effectively prevent widespread commercial use, such as: mandatory licensing with severe limitations, operational bans in key sectors, or restrictions requiring systems to be substantially modified or disabled.
- Restrictions on specific AI applications (e.g., biometric surveillance, emotion recognition) do not count unless they effectively prevent the use of advanced AI systems broadly.
