Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
GéopolitiqueIAOne-OffEuropeRégulationChinaPolitique7aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 76.8%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète24 mars 26, 14:41 UTC31 déc. 33, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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KalshiNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.
- The concept of “moratorium” here refers to a halt or prohibition on training or deploying frontier AI systems at or beyond certain established threshold (may it be capabilies, scale, speed, or something else meanigfully correlated with general capabilities), combined with serious enforcement mechanisms, not merely voluntary guidelines or safety recommendations.
- Core Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Substance: Actual Moratorium
- A policy, treaty, or coordinated set of national policies explicitly aims to:
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 77% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2033.
- Comment Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.