Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
GéopolitiqueIAOne-OffEuropeRégulationChinePolitique7a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète24 mars 26, 14:41 UTC31 déc. 33, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2034, there is a formal, publicly announced international agreement or coordinated policy that constitutes a moratorium on frontier AGI development, meeting the criteria below.
- The concept of “moratorium” here refers to a halt or prohibition on training or deploying frontier AI systems at or beyond certain established threshold (may it be capabilies, scale, speed, or something else meanigfully correlated with general capabilities), combined with serious enforcement mechanisms, not merely voluntary guidelines or safety recommendations.
- Core Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met:
- Substance: Actual Moratorium
- A policy, treaty, or coordinated set of national policies explicitly aims to: