Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?
ChinaOne-OffCrime & Justice3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 61%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète12 déc. 24, 15:49 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Taken seriously by the court
- Specifically cite global catastrophic risk, risk to humanity, or something equivalent
- May be against a company, person, or government
- Must be against a meaningful attempt to build AGI (current frontier labs count).
- A lawsuit that a government that isn't developing AGI isn't doing enough to govern it, doesn't count.
- Doesn't have to be in a US court, but China is excluded.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 61% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Taken seriously by the court