Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleVenezuela 95%En tête parmi 73 options
Prévisionnistes
58
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète12 mars 24, 16:14 UTC1 janv. 40, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUnited nations - will it stand by 2040?
Manifold MarketsIran coup attempt by which date?
PolymarketRussia coup attempt in 2026?
PolymarketChina coup attempt before 2027?
PolymarketWhen Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves the same way as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17829/coup-detat-likelihood/, unless a country is not listed there, in which case it will be resolved according to the same criteria and in the same spirit.
- Copying the criteria from there:
- A coup d'etat is an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority.
- Coups are often proceeded by political unrest/instability, and can often serve as a turning point in a nation's history.
- Wide speculation exists on the possibility of coups in various countries.
- Resolution Criteria
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Venezuela à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2040.
- Comment Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves the same way as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17829/coup-detat-likelihood/, unless a country is not listed there, in which case it will be resolved according to the same criteria and in the same spirit.