Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2029 21.3%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète29 oct. 23, 00:33 UTC5 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)
Manifold MarketsWill the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Each year resolves:
- YES if the USA and China were at war at any point in that year.
- NO at the end of that year otherwise.
- I won't bet.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 55,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2029 à 21% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) doit être résolu le 5 janvier 2030.
- Comment When will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Each year resolves: