Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Later or never 28.6%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète16 févr. 24, 17:46 UTC31 déc. 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will I finish my stuff on time?
Manifold MarketsWill I drop out of my PhD program?
Manifold MarketsWill I get a tenure-track job offer straight out of my PhD?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRègles
I have been working on it since September 2020, have two publications and one manuscript ready to be published, plus some work-in-progress stuff, and have funding for all of 2024.
- I will use the defense date as the point at which it is "finished".
Marchés ouverts
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 59,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 176,8 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,5 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 271 k €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 24,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,9 k €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Volume total
- 302,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8 k €
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What year will I finish my PhD? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Later or never à 29% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand What year will I finish my PhD? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What year will I finish my PhD? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment What year will I finish my PhD? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I have been working on it since September 2020, have two publications and one manuscript ready to be published, plus some work-in-progress stuff, and have funding for all of 2024.