Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 97.5%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète11 janv. 25, 21:41 UTC31 mai 30, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will I get a tenure-track job offer straight out of my PhD?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will I finish my PhD?
Manifold MarketsWhich colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
KalshiWill the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?
Manifold MarketsNew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
KalshiMaine lobster landings in 2026
KalshiRègles
I’m a first year PhD student in Behavioral Marketing at UC Berkeley.
- This question resolves yes if+when I drop out, no if I finish my program (est.
- The main reason I would drop out is if something else seems clearly more impactful or interesting.
- Two things I could imagine fitting this description are working at an EA-aligned research org or doing more direct AI safety work.
- The main reason I wouldn’t drop out is that I’m getting a comfy stipend and have a ton of research flexibility.
- I’m currently running surveys on probabilistic reasoning and forecasting human-AI interaction.
Marchés ouverts
AI
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba+2.0pt69%
- Moonshot-9.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.3pt6%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 75,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 61,5 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.3pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt15.5%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,8 M €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+2.5pt85.4%
- Moonshot-0.3pt9.7%
- Z.ai-3.4pt1.9%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%98%
- Above 2.55%+18.0pt94%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 61,1 k €
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 résultats de plus
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I drop out of my PhD program? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 98% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I drop out of my PhD program? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I drop out of my PhD program? doit être résolu le 31 mai 2030.
- Comment Will I drop out of my PhD program? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I’m a first year PhD student in Behavioral Marketing at UC Berkeley.