Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Global Pandemic 62.4%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète25 juin 24, 20:24 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiRègles
Will we be bowing down to AI, or mother Nature will have the last laugh with a climate calamity, or global tensions will erupt in a nuclear showdown.
- Could it be that our economic systems will crumble under their own weight?
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+0.5pt73%
- September 18+1.0pt69%
- September 11+5.5pt66%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 558,1 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.5pt75%
- New People (NL)-1.6pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 résultats de plus
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Global Pandemic à 62% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment What will be the primary cause of a significant global catastrophe by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will we be bowing down to AI, or mother Nature will have the last laugh with a climate calamity, or global tensions will erupt in a nuclear showdown.