Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2030, and what will be the cause?
One-OffSociété et cultureScience3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNo global catastrophe 87.3%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
48
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 minutes
21 juil. 23, 00:49 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
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Règles
If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause.
- Otherwise, resolves to "the named outcome".
- See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.
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