Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030?
WeatherOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 62%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète19 mars 23, 01:06 UTC2 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
This market is intended to predict whether or not the drying of the Great Salt Lake will both continue to occur and have significant negative effects to human health in the surroundings region (on a medium term timescale).
- It is very likely the dust storm would need to meet the following requirements for me to resolve this as Yes:
- Contains a large amount of (presumably poisonous, likely arsenic laden) material from the Great Salt Lake lake bed
- Is expected to cause specifically attributable negative health affects (over the victims lifetime) to greater than 500 people and/or required more than $10,000,000 to mitigate the negative effects of (possibly through economic losses of Shelter In Place or Evacuation orders)
- Recieved reporting by a major news outlet (respected news outlets in the SLC region count).
- Please feel free to ask questions about how I would resolve this in various cases in the comments.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 62% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market is intended to predict whether or not the drying of the Great Salt Lake will both continue to occur and have significant negative effects to human health in the surroundings region (on a medium term timescale).