Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète29 juin 26, 00:09 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.
- Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
- Even upon the signing of such agreement, if there is the exchanging of the bombing, attacks, blockades, assassinations, drone striking, jibs and the jabs, etc. within a 45-day period, it is considered NOT A FUCKING PERMANENT PEACE DEAL.
- It should be very easy to be understanding how this could be resolving.
Marchés ouverts
Geopolitics
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- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
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+20 résultats de plus
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- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 77% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] sera-t-il résolu ?
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.