US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-Orient2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.3%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète29 juin 26, 00:09 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran.
- Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
- Even upon the signing of such agreement, if there is the exchanging of the bombing, attacks, blockades, assassinations, drone striking, jibs and the jabs, etc. within a 45-day period, it is considered NOT A FUCKING PERMANENT PEACE DEAL.
- It should be very easy to be understanding how this could be resolving.