Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleA (phased) lifting of specific U.S. economic and oil sanctions on Iran. 96.4%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 26, 00:56 UTC1 janv. 27, 01:40 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Iran vs US (props)
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PolymarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the official outcome of the current diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a long-term peace agreement, during or after the two-week ceasefire period initiated on April 7, 2026.
- If no peace deal is reached by the end of 2026, the options on what will be included resolve NO.
- As of April 8, 2026, the United States and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.
- This pause in military hostilities follows weeks of escalating tensions, during which President Donald Trump issued multiple threats to target Iranian critical infrastructure—specifically bridges and power plants—unless Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enter into a long-term peace agreement.
- President Trump has characterized the current 10-point proposal from Iran as a "workable basis" for negotiation and has stated that both the U.S. and Iran are "very far along" in drafting a definitive agreement.
