Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleA (phased) lifting of specific U.S. economic and oil sanctions on Iran. 96.4%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 26, 00:56 UTC1 janv. 27, 01:40 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
PolymarketRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
PolymarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWhat lasting peace deal will come first? Russia's or Iran's?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the official outcome of the current diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a long-term peace agreement, during or after the two-week ceasefire period initiated on April 7, 2026.
- If no peace deal is reached by the end of 2026, the options on what will be included resolve NO.
- As of April 8, 2026, the United States and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.
- This pause in military hostilities follows weeks of escalating tensions, during which President Donald Trump issued multiple threats to target Iranian critical infrastructure—specifically bridges and power plants—unless Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enter into a long-term peace agreement.
- President Trump has characterized the current 10-point proposal from Iran as a "workable basis" for negotiation and has stated that both the U.S. and Iran are "very far along" in drafting a definitive agreement.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal? ?
- Manifold Markets cote A (phased) lifting of specific U.S. economic and oil sanctions on Iran. à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria