Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
0.8 pts (24h)GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / Ukraine1mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 96%+0.8pt
Qualité du marché
70 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
324,7 €
Liquidité
11,5 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
3.8% / 5.0%
Écart
1.2 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-0.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
26 août 26, 21:43 UTC1 nov. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
- Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
- The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
- Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.