Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffTechRussia / Ukraine1moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.4%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète24 août 26, 09:30 UTC31 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves based on the "Russian Net Monthly Advance" report of Black Bird group (positive values resolve NO, negative resolve YES) - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup).
- Here is their assessment as of May 2026 (from https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2062585511340916856):
- [image]For context some analysts like Mike Kofman (e.g. in https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-long-game-with-jake-sullivan-and-jon-finer/id1850526014?i=1000771130026) believe that Ukraine has gained initiative on the battlefield and is likely to keep it for the next few months.
- If the group does not publish a new assessment following the same methodology by December 1st, this resolves NA
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026? doit être résolu le 31 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves based on the "Russian Net Monthly Advance" report of Black Bird group (positive values resolve NO, negative resolve YES) - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup).