If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / UkraineEuropeManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 51.2%
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète8 mars 22, 09:56 UTC31 déc. 52, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
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Manifold MarketsWill Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)
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Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurRègles
Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows - Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory - Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO - Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality.
- This question resolves N/A if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches longterm ceasefire, but under different conditions than outlined above.
- Or if the year ends without ceasefire
- This question resolves "NO" If - Ukraine complies to these terms - Russia at any moment agrees that they have complied to these terms - Ukraine has not broken these terms - Russia violates the treaty anyway within 30 years of signing.
- If Ukraine breaks the treaty or 30 years pass without incident, this question will resolve "Yes".
- Mar 8, 11:10am: Use loans if you want to invest into in this market
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
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- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 512,6 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
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+21 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
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- 170,4 k €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 51% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2052.
- Comment If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows - Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory - Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO - Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality.