Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleEnd of 2029 32.8%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète4 avr. 26, 17:00 UTC11 avr. 40, 16:33 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu)
Manifold MarketsWhere will this paper be accepted? (Black Mirrors:CPT-Symmetric Alternatives to Black Holes by Tzanavaris, Boyle, Turok)
Manifold MarketsAre naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
Some mathematicians claim to derive weak lightlike singularity inside rotating black holes, without accounting for matter accretion.
- Some physicists claim that the lightlike singularity goes away once accretion is accounted for:
- As long as a black hole continues to accrete, and thereby to generate ingoing and outgoing streams near the inner horizon, the inflationary growth rate remains finite, and there is no null singularity.
- A proposition resolves to Yes, if by that date a publicly available mathematical proof shows that, within the theoretical framework of General Relativity, rotating black holes with accretion do not contain lightlike (null) singularity.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Lightlike singularity in black holes overthrown by ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote End of 2029 à 33% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Lightlike singularity in black holes overthrown by ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Lightlike singularity in black holes overthrown by ? doit être résolu le 11 avril 2040.
- Comment Lightlike singularity in black holes overthrown by ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Some mathematicians claim to derive weak lightlike singularity inside rotating black holes, without accounting for matter accretion.