Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 77.9%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète2 janv. 24, 21:24 UTC1 janv. 01, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu)
Manifold MarketsLightlike singularity in black holes overthrown by ?
Manifold MarketsWhat is true about primordial black holes?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
Naked sigulaeiries are theoretically possible in our current model of physics and spinning black holes.
- However, many physicists believe something must exist to make these types of singularities impossible.
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_singularity
- A great video on the topic:
- https://youtu.be/1Z5fnwUmTSY?si=PG5bfkFyOKLB_FQT
- (https://www.youtube.com/embed/1Z5fnwUmTSY?si=PG5bfkFyOKLB_FQT)This market resolves to YES if definitive evidence arises of an actual naked singularity.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2101.
- Comment Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Naked sigulaeiries are theoretically possible in our current model of physics and spinning black holes.