Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNot accepted anywhere by EOY 2026 55.9%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète10 avr. 26, 15:20 UTC31 déc. 26, 16:19 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Where will this paper be accepted? (Black Mirrors:CPT-Symmetric Alternatives to Black Holes by Tzanavaris, Boyle, Turok)
Manifold MarketsIn which journal will this paper be accepted in 2026? (Milos and Pérez)
Manifold MarketsAre naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
This market refers to the paper "Do Black Holes Exist?" by Leonardo Modesto, Edoardo Rattu.
- An answer resolves to Yes if the paper is accepted to be published in that journal before the end of 2026.
- (The paper does not have to be published by the end of 2026; it only needs to be accepted.)
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211 k €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Not accepted anywhere by EOY 2026 à 56% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu) doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Where will this paper be accepted? (Do Black Holes Exist? by Modesto, Rattu) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market refers to the paper "Do Black Holes Exist?" by Leonardo Modesto, Edoardo Rattu.