Prévision communautaire actuelle
Not demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035 31.6%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète7 janv. 26, 14:44 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
Kalshiwill i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
Manifold MarketsRègles
📌 Description :
- This market resolves based on the first public demonstration of a quantum computer achieving ≥1,000 logical qubits.
- A valid demonstration must include:
- • Explicit identification of logical qubits (error-corrected, not physical qubits),
- • Evidence of fault-tolerant operation (e.g. sustained error correction),
- • Public disclosure via peer-reviewed paper, preprint, or official announcement by a recognized organization (company, research lab, or government agency).
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Not demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035 à 32% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : 📌 Description :