If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffSociety & Culture3mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 80%
Prévisionnistes
73
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète13 mars 23, 05:32 UTC1 janv. 27, 08:00 UTC
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PolymarketRègles
Inspired by https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/i-offered-people-10000-to-take-off
- If this market gets enough interest or I otherwise gain at least $20 of motivation, I may choose to do this on a future flight.
- (I fly several times a month.) This market resolves if/when I do that, based on the result.
- I won't make the offer to anyone for whom I have significant additional information about their masking preferences past the simple fact that they're wearing one.
- (e.g. I won't ask someone who has expressed a verbal opinion to me about whether they'd accept, or is wearing a shirt with some statement about the importance of masking on it.)
- I'll offer no later than halfway through the flight.