Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 55.4%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète1 août 26, 16:23 UTC31 déc. 99, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
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PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This question will remain open perpetually until its resolution unless China, Taiwan or the US stop existing.
- This question will resolve after the conflict between China and Taiwan ends.
- If there is still fighting on the island after multiple years and the US intervenes much later in the war, this still resolves YES.
- Direct intervention requires US forces engaging Chinese ones, this can include and is not limited to: Engaging Chinese naval assets, deploying boots on the ground in Taiwan, missile strikes on Chinese military bases, etc. Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If China gains control of Taiwan through political (non-military) means, the market resolves N/A. (Identical market to: source market)