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Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète12 nov. 22, 02:34 UTC1 janv. 00, 05:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Manifold MarketsIf China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
Manifold MarketsIf China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Manifold MarketsIf China invades Taiwan will they try to cut off the US from Fentanyl?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Ukraine has shown how challenging it can be for a larger power to take over a smaller one that really doesn't want to be taken over and has the support of the West.
- Will the same thing happen to Taiwan?
- Resolves YES if Taiwan becomes unambiguously a part of China due to forceful takeover by China.
- Resolves NO if Chinia attempts to invade Taiwan and is rebuffed.
- Resolves N/A if China or Taiwan stop existing in their current forms.
- (Other than Taiwan being incorperated into China by force.