If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
One-OffGéopolitiqueChinePolitique américainePolitique
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 54.1%
Prévisionnistes
135
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard3 août 23, 15:30 UTC31 déc. 99, 22:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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This question will remain open perpetually until its resolution unless China, Taiwan or the US stop existing.
- This question will resolve after the conflict between China and Taiwan ends.
- If there is still fighting on the island after multiple years and the US intervenes much later in the war, this still resolves YES.
- Direct intervention requires US forces engaging Chinese ones, this can include and is not limited to: Engaging Chinese naval assets, deploying boots on the ground in Taiwan, missile strikes on Chinese military bases, etc. Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If China gains control of Taiwan through political (non-military) means, the market resolves N/A.