For which of the Millennium Prize Problems will the Million Dollars be taken ?
12.4 pts (24h)One-OffScienceManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleYang-Mills & The Mass Gap 49.7%-12.4ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-12.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète9 avr. 24, 19:28 UTC1 janv. 99, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketAt least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
KalshiRègles
https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/
- For each market : If the 1 million dollar prize pledged by the Clay Institute of Mathematics for the resolution of the associated problem is taken, then it resolves YES.
- (Typically : someone solves the problem and accepts the money)
- If it’s clearly consensual that it won’t be taken, then it esolves NO.
- (For example, if the Clay Institute of Mathematics ceases to exist and no money is saved to be awarded later, all remaining problems shall resolve NO ; if someone solves a problem, is awarded the money and refuses it, the corresponding question resolves NO.)
- If the money is awarded and redirected (like idk someone gets the prize and asks for it to be given to MIRI), this resolves YES.