Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 92.9%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète25 nov. 22, 02:05 UTC31 déc. 29, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Severe nuclear accident in the Zaporizhzhia plant in 2026?
FutuurIAEA-confirmed radioactive contamination accident by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a civilian nuclear energy accident takes place in the US before 2030 which is judged to be responsible for at least one death within one year.
- Close date updated to 2029-12-30 11:59 pm
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+11.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-33.9pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 227,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 95,3 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.4pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 109,1 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 8 k €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-6.0pt7.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a civilian nuclear energy accident takes place in the US before 2030 which is judged to be responsible for at least one death within one year.