Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2050 37%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète18 oct. 25, 15:19 UTC1 janv. 50, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide?
Manifold MarketsWill the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?
Manifold MarketsWill Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Russia remove troops from Georgia in 2026?
FutuurForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve when Wikipedia removes Gaza from its "list of genocides" pages and stops identifying it as a genocide.
- Then all dates after the current date resolve YES and all dates before resolve NO.
- Specifically, the market will resolve if:
- The English Wikipedia article currently titled "Gaza genocide" is either deleted, renamed to a title that does not include "genocide" (e.g., "Gaza conflict," "Israel-Hamas war allegations," or similar without the term "genocide" directly asserting it), or its lead section (the first paragraph) is fundamentally altered to remove the assertion that the conflict is a genocide.
- The "Gaza genocide" entry is removed from the English Wikipedia article "List of genocides."
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By when will Wikipedia remove Gaza from "list of genocides"? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before 2050 à 37% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand By when will Wikipedia remove Gaza from "list of genocides"? sera-t-il résolu ?
- By when will Wikipedia remove Gaza from "list of genocides"? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2050.
- Comment By when will Wikipedia remove Gaza from "list of genocides"? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria