PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 92%+0.5pt
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
10,2 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
7.0% / 9.0%
Écart
2.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+0.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
5 nov. 25, 19:08 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Foreign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketWill Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?
Manifold MarketsWill the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the USA be given control of the Gaza Strip by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
PolymarketUkraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify.
- Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
- US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
- High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.