Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 95.8%
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète4 août 24, 09:49 UTC2 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
PolymarketWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel withdraw from the buffer zone with Syria by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketWill Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Will the IDF fully withdraw all troops from Gaza at any point between now and the end of 2026? If the IDF withdraws and then re-enters, this will still resolve Yes.
- If any IDF presence remains, it will not be considered a full withdrawal.
- IDF troop presence within a buffer zone inside Gaza would still count as IDF presence in Gaza.
- I will not bet on this market.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will the IDF fully withdraw all troops from Gaza at any point between now and the end of 2026? If the IDF withdraws and then re-enters, this will still resolve Yes.