All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussie / UkraineChineEurope3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 06:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 97%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète19 févr. 25, 09:57 UTC26 févr. 30, 22:59 UTC
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PolymarketRègles
A victory for dark enlightenment - fragmentation of the four biggest corrupt mega-entities.
- As the EU is already fragmented, it must be at or below the present (Feb 2025) level of unification.
- The other 3 must be at most at the same level - so there must be multiple entities managing their own taxation and security.
- If any is in the state of civil war, the actual situation/governance ability on the ground will be considered.
- Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fragmentation Count: Only 2 fragments is enough.
- Minimum Size Threshold: The fragmentation must be at least a 1/5 - 4/5 split, meaning both groups should constitute a significant proportion of the original entity.