KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 92%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
4,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
88.0% / 92.0%
Écart
4.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
5 mai 26, 14:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US ban mail-in ballots for the 2026 midterm elections?
FutuurWill the European Union introduce a digital euro as a central bank digital currency (CBDC) before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Anti-CBDC Act be signed into law in 2026?
FutuurWill the US ban software patents before 2033 ?
Manifold MarketsWill the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
If legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
- For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.
- Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills.
- Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage.
- The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
Marchés ouverts
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 35 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.4%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.4pt2%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.6pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.1pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed Decision in December?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? ?
- Kalshi cote Yes à 92% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.