Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 93.3%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète27 févr. 23, 14:02 UTC31 déc. 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US ban CBDC in 2026?
KalshiWill the US ban mail-in ballots for the 2026 midterm elections?
FutuurWill OpenAI go public in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Things that would resolve this as YES include
- New legislation that specifically excludes software from patentability, similar to article 52 of the European Patent Convention
- Major SCOTUS decision that effectively results in the same
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 180,5 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-13.0pt36%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-9.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T21.2%
- $1.75T–$2.0T20.2%
- $1.5T–$1.75T19.2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 105,1 k €
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+21.0pt84%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+13.0pt57%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US ban software patents before 2033 ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US ban software patents before 2033 ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US ban software patents before 2033 ? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2032.
- Comment Will the US ban software patents before 2033 ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Things that would resolve this as YES include