KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before 2028 24%-9.0pt
Qualité du marché
37 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
423,5 €
Liquidité
3 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
16.0% / 28.0%
Écart
12.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
16 sept. 26, 17:00 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Canada becomes EU Associate Member by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?
KalshiWill Brittany gain independence from France before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next Thuringian state election?
Manifold MarketsTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
PolymarketRègles
If Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- An equivalent status must be expressly presented by Canada and the EU as the institutional arrangement contemplated by the EU's Canadian associate-membership proposal.
- Both sides must sign or formally adopt the same agreement.
Marchés ouverts
EuropePOLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- December 31+1.3pt96%
- September 25+7.0pt88%
- September 23+13.5pt75%
- Volume total
- 385 k €
- Volume 24h
- 181,9 k €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.0pt38.1%
- Édouard Philippe25.8%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon13.4%
+38 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3130%
- October 31+0.5pt16%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Serbia?
- Aleksandar Vučić+2.3pt52.5%
- Ilija Srdanović-1.0pt46.5%
- Vladan Đokić+0.3pt1%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December-5.5pt22%
- October17%
- September 30,7%
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
KALSHISanchez Izquierdo vs Monteiro
- Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo52.4%
- Thiago Monteiro47.6%
- Volume total
- 35,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 34,6 k €
- Next leader out of power before 2027?
- Russia military action against EU country by which date?
- How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
- Greenland deal text released by which date?
- EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by which date?
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Elections: SPD # of seats?
- Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
- Berlin State Elections: AfD # of seats?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will Canada gain EU associate status? ?
- Kalshi cote Before 2028 à 24% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will Canada gain EU associate status? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will Canada gain EU associate status? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment When will Canada gain EU associate status? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.