Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31, 2027 25%En tête parmi 7 options
December 31, 2027 25%Qualité du marché
73 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
17,2 k €
Liquidité
109,3 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
2.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-4.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
5 nov. 25, 19:35 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
September 30, 2026Perdu
Avant la clôture: 0% ·
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Polymarket
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Oui
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Friedrich Merz cease to be chancellor before 14th October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.